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- <text id=93TT0525>
- <title>
- Nov. 15, 1993: Should NATO Move East?
- </title>
- <history>
- TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1993
- Nov. 15, 1993 A Christian In Winter:Billy Graham
- </history>
- <article>
- <source>Time Magazine</source>
- <hdr>
- DEFENSE, Page 68
- Should NATO Move East?
- </hdr>
- <body>
- <p>Old enemies from the Warsaw Pact are keen to join the Western
- alliance, but Moscow frowns on the idea
- </p>
- <p>By BRUCE W. NELAN--Reported by David Aikman/Washington, Sally B. Donnelly/Moscow
- and James O. Jackson/Bonn
- </p>
- <p> It is the autumn of 1998. Hungary's democratic government,
- outraged at the treatment of 1.8 million ethnic Hungarians in
- neighboring Romania, threatens to take back the region of Transylvania
- by force. Bulgaria backs Romania. Farther north, Ukraine's government
- is shaken by an ultimatum from Moscow: Hand over all nuclear
- weapons or face a pre-emptive strike. Hungary and Ukraine turn
- immediately to their NATO allies for support.
- </p>
- <p> NATO allies? Well, not yet, but the door to the Atlantic alliance
- is opening, and the former Warsaw Pact nations, eager to enlist,
- could join before the turn of the century. Sounds like a good
- idea, bringing all of the Continent under one protective umbrella.
- But if the U.S. and its NATO allies would not fight for blood-soaked
- Bosnia and Herzegovina, will they do so for Hungary? How about
- Poland in a clash with Russia? Do the Atlantic democracies have
- the will and the resources to spread their security guarantees
- over Central and Eastern Europe, taking on the unending feuds,
- ethnic hatreds and border disputes that have poisoned the region
- for centuries? And if they do, are they also prepared for the
- hostile reaction the move will trigger in a Russia that looks
- westward with as much suspicion as envy? Is there any virtue
- in a new NATO that shifts the Iron Curtain back to Russia's
- very borders?
- </p>
- <p> These are not academic questions. Bill Clinton has called a
- NATO summit to convene in Brussels next Jan. 10, to plan the
- organization's march eastward. The meeting, Secretary of State
- Warren Christopher told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
- last week, will "formally open the door to an evolutionary process
- of NATO expansion." He had just returned from an eight-day trip
- to the old Warsaw Pact countries to "renew" NATO and polish
- a plan to enlist those former Soviet satellites that are making
- visible progress toward democracy. "The alliance must embrace
- innovation or risk irrelevance," he reported to Congress. He
- even discussed the proposed expansion with Boris Yeltsin and
- found the Russian President "very positive."
- </p>
- <p> Maybe so, but the Russians have not been happy with such a prospect
- up to now. Anything positive Yeltsin might have said to Christopher
- was more likely in response to a go-slow signal coming from
- NATO defense ministers when they met last month in Travemunde,
- Germany. Under the ambiguous slogan "Partnership for Peace,"
- the military chiefs made it clear that East European states
- would not be joining the alliance any time soon. They would
- be offered military cooperation agreements, but not full membership
- in NATO--which today includes 16 states--until some vague
- point in the future. It is only membership that brings the gilt-edged
- security guarantee: an attack on one is to be considered an
- attack on all.
- </p>
- <p> Not long ago, when the Berlin Wall, the Warsaw Pact and the
- Soviet Union were all collapsing, many experts thought NATO
- had served its purpose and its demise would soon follow. Now
- the East Europeans are clamoring for protection from--depending
- on their location--Russia, Germany, Ukraine or one another.
- The preferred solution of each is full NATO membership, an ambition
- that could mesh with the West's desire to find a post-cold war
- role for the alliance and a new world order that works.
- </p>
- <p> The most eloquent spokesman for embracing the East is Czech
- President Vaclav Havel. He argued last month that "we have always
- belonged to the Western sphere of European civilization and
- share the values upon which NATO was founded and which it exists
- to defend."
- </p>
- <p> The alliance as an institution has always been popular among
- Washington officials because it provides the most direct channel
- to inject U.S. interests into European policymaking. But all
- the talk about stretching NATO's front line has touched off
- an intense debate inside the Clinton Administration. In general
- the Pentagon opposes the rapid inclusion of Eastern states on
- military grounds, while the State Department tends to view such
- inclusion as a mechanism for advancing democracy, market economics
- and Western values.
- </p>
- <p> "If we do not export stability," says German Defense Minister
- Volker Ruhe, "we will import instability." Those opposed to
- the concept argue that growing bigger could introduce enough
- regional quarrels to unravel NATO. The skeptics warn particularly
- against isolating and antagonizing Russia, creating threats
- that do not now exist. Though Christopher and Defense Secretary
- Les Aspin say the republics of the former Soviet Union, including
- Russia, could become eligible to join in the future, there is
- no realistic chance Moscow would sign on as a junior partner
- in an alliance dominated by the U.S. and Germany.
- </p>
- <p> Announcing a new postcommunist military doctrine last week,
- Russia's security chiefs declared that they view no country
- or alliance as an enemy. At the same time, Defense Minister
- Pavel Grachev took a dim view of NATO's moving its flags and
- formations closer to the Russian border. " NATO is a military
- alliance," he said. "So what does it need new members for? Against
- whom is it aimed?"
- </p>
- <p> Yeltsin appeared to bless Poland's membership last August. But
- two weeks later, he sent a letter to the leading NATO capitals
- to say Moscow did not approve of enlarging the alliance in the
- near term. Some experts saw in that the hand of military hard-liners,
- but Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev, a supporter of strong ties
- with the West, was also quietly warning allied governments against
- isolating Russia. "We call on East Europeans and NATO to think
- again," says a senior Russian diplomat, "whether there is much
- sense in expanding NATO today when neither NATO nor Eastern
- Europe is threatened by anybody."
- </p>
- <p> Fears of a new Iron Curtain coming down between Russia and Eastern
- Europe are widespread in Moscow, but NATO Secretary-General
- Manfred Worner insists they are misplaced. "Nothing this alliance
- will do will be against Russia," he insists. East European leaders
- say much the same thing and suggest that a solid phalanx of
- new NATO states in the region would be a force for stability.
- </p>
- <p> In fact, the former Warsaw Pact countries make little secret
- that what they want most is protection--mainly against Russia.
- After the armed insurrection in Moscow last month, the Polish
- government's National Security Office publicly admonished, "Recent
- events in Russia are the latest indication of the importance
- and significance of our future membership in NATO." In private,
- senior Polish and Hungarian diplomats worry aloud about possible
- trouble not only from Russia, but also from a nuclear-armed
- Ukraine, which they say is "as dangerous as the Russians," and
- from Germany, which they still do not trust.
- </p>
- <p> Those who want a bigger NATO use the words stability and instability
- constantly but do not explain how a military alliance that was
- created specifically to confront and contain the Soviet Union
- can provide the answers for a region in which the main problems
- are economic and political. The stresses inside the new democracies
- in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic do not arise from
- external threats. The advocates also tend to underplay the importance
- Russia still bears on the world scene, especially in Europe.
- "If you cannot involve the Russians, there is no way you can
- protect these countries," says Uwe Nerlich, a deputy director
- of Germany's Research Institute for International Politics and
- Security.
- </p>
- <p> Nerlich suggests the former Warsaw Pact states should pool their
- forces by creating their own military alliance, which would
- work out security arrangements with both NATO and Russia. Senior
- British officials look favorably on this kind of approach, and
- so do the French. Earlier this year Prime Minister Edouard Balladur
- presented the European Community with a plan to encourage the
- East Europeans to negotiate bilateral treaties.
- </p>
- <p> In the midst of this far-reaching debate, the U.S. seems to
- have decided to temporize, hoping to codify the Partnership
- for Peace compromise at next January's summit. The Russians
- would be happy with an approach that would not admit any new
- members to NATO in the near future. Refusing to be discouraged,
- the East Europeans are pretending the Partnership is a step
- forward. "We want full membership," says a Polish diplomat,
- "but we are in no position to turn any association down." NATO's
- present members, though they have little to fear from foes these
- days, must soon decide whom it would be wise to befriend.
- </p>
-
- </body>
- </article>
- </text>
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